Australians grow more upbeat about economy

SYDNEY: Australian consumer sentiment unexpectedly surged for the second straight month in July to reach its best level in 19 months, as households grew more optimistic about an economic recovery.

Adding to the positive mood, government data yesterday showed demand for home loans rising for the eight straight month as record low interest rates and generous government handouts drew more first home buyers to the property market.

The better-than-expected outcomes should reinforce the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) view that the local economy will recover later this year, and lessen the need for further cuts in the cash rate.

“This is unquestionably a stunning result,” said Bill Evans, chief economist at Westpac. “This print for the (Westpac Consumer) index will encourage even more optimism from the RBA.”

The survey of 1,200 people by the Westpac Bank and Melbourne Institute showed the index of consumer sentiment climbed 9.3% in July, the highest reading since December 2007. That was a real surprise to analysts who had expected a pullback after a steep 12.7% jump in June.

The index was now up 23.2% in two months, the biggest such increase since the survey began in 1975.

The improvement was led by consumer assessments of the economic outlook, especially after Australia dodged a “technical recession” in the first quarter and official data have shown the labour market holding up surprisingly well so far.

The measure of economic conditions over the next 12 months rose 19.6%, while that for conditions over the next five years jumped 15.7%.

“Today’s data show that the balance of risks facing the economy continues to shift towards a more positive outlook,” said Josh Williamson, economist at Citi.

That seemed to echo RBA’s own assessment on Tuesday. While keeping the cash rate unchanged at a record low of 3% for the third month, it said the domestic economy was not as weak as expected and sounded more upbeat about a global recovery.

It has slashed the cash rate by 450 basis points since September and retains a scope for lowering rates further. Investors expect another quarter percentage point rate cut in October, but the RBA could quickly reverse gears in the next 12 months, with markets pricing in 50 basis points of rate hikes.

Despite the upbeat data yesterday, there are sizeable downside risks to the economy in coming months.

Household spending is likely to take a hit in the second half of the year as the effect of the government’s cash handouts fades and export earnings drop, reflecting lower commodity prices. Additionally, the global recession has seen businesses cut back on investment and led to mounting fears of job losses. — Reuters

Official labour data for June is due out today and analysts are looking for a drop of 25,000 jobs, after a 1,700 drop in May. The jobless rate is seen rising to 5.9%, a six-year high.

“The real test for the consumer will be in the second half of the year, when the impact of the fiscal stimulus abates,” said Helen Kevans, economist at JP Morgan. “Then, households’ disposable incomes will be squeezed by falling labour income as unemployment rises, and rising petrol prices.”

The government forecasts the jobless rate to top 8.5% by mid-2011 and that will keep pressure on the RBA to maintain an easy monetary policy bias. Historically, it has rarely tightened policy when the jobless rate has been rising.

The relief from aggressive rate cuts was clear in the continuing recovery in demand for housing loans. Official data showed the number of home loans rose by a better-than-expected 2.2% in May, from a month earlier.

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Loan Applications Increase Despite Spike in Rates

Mortgage rates climbed in the week ending July 17, yet the demand for loans still managed to increase during the week, according to a weekly industry survey.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said average rates for a 30-year mortgage rebounded from 5.05% to 5.31% last week, erasing the improvement seen in the prior week when rates fell 29 basis points. The jump in rates didn’t put a halt to refinancing or home purchases, however, as both indexes continued moving up from the seven-month low seen three weeks ago.

The Market Composite Index ― which tracks the volume of mortgage applications ― increased 2.8% in the week, moderating the 4-week average to -1.0%.
Refinance-related loans moved up 4.0% in the week and accounted for 55.5% of all loans. In the prior week refinancing jumped 17%. The Purchase Index edged up 1.3% in the week, though on a 4-week average purchases are 1.7% lower.
“It’s been stuck in this low-five range for a number of weeks,” commented chief economist Donald Rissmiller from Strategas Research Partners last week. With the Federal Reserve continuing with its accommodative policy for the medium-term future, rates are likely to continue in that range.

Mortgage rates vary across the country but the state average is below 6% ― an historically low rate ― in all 50 states. According to a report from Zillow.com published yesterday, lenders in Alabama offer the lowest mortgage rate at 5.06%, while rates in Maine are currently the highest at 5.94%.


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Mortgage lending, refinancing starting to rise

Local bankers and real-estate agents say the uptick in the housing market has been modest, attributing increases to the first-time homebuyer tax credit being offered through November, the depressing effect foreclosures have had on prices and refinancing of existing loans into lower rates.

Nationally, home sales are growing at their fastest rate in more than eight years after stalling out in the middle of 2008. New-home sales for June were up 11 percent from May.

"It's not coming back as fast as we would like, but it's been a modest increase," Zanesville-area Realtor Jay Butler said. "The phone ringing is better than not having it ringing."

Buyers are starting to take advantage of a federal tax credit that covers 10 percent of the home price or up to $8,000 for first-time buyers. Home sales must be completed before Dec. 1 for buyers to take advantage.

Jeff McLendon, of McLendon Mortgage in Zanesville, said the availability of the tax credit has been a good thing and about 60 percent of the loans his firm has done have been eligible for the credit.

"When that came out, our phones were ringing off the hook. The first thing people were asking is, 'Do I qualify for this?'" McLendon said. "Then they want to know if they can close before the tax credit is up. It's the busiest we've been in four years."

Carl Raines, vice president and local branch manager with Peoples Bank in Zanesville, said one-year comparisons between spring 2008 and the same time period this year show that mortgage financing has doubled in the area.

But a lot of the growth he sees is in residential home refinances, he said.

"We're up in the region, in southeast Ohio. We're losing adjustable rates to people refinancing into fixed rates," Raines said. "But we exceeded our loan goals in February, March, April and May."

He said construction home loans are picking up, which has increased the sales of construction materials.

Raines attributes some of that to the tax credit for first-time homebuyers.

The rate of home repossessions through foreclosures remains high in Muskingum and surrounding counties, but that's also had a positive effect on housing prices for the consumer.

"It's lowered prices significantly, I would say 15 to 20 percent," Butler said. "We have people who are ready and qualified to buy a home, but banks were tight for a good stretch there. The first-time money has helped some. But you've got to have a credit score of 620 or better for a lender to look at you. It comes down to lending ability."

Tom Lyall, president and CEO of Century National Bank in Zanesville, said Century had record lending volume through the first half of 2009, mainly via refinancing.

"But the last couple of months, we've seen a pretty nice increase in home purchases," Lyall said. "Overall volume has been terrific, and the tax credit has taken the strain off of budgets for some people."

But some would like to see more help.

"If the purchaser could get their hands on that credit at the time of sale, it would be so much better," McLendon said. "That money could be used for the down payment or to fix up the home, whatever. If you get the credit after you buy the home, how did that help you buy your home?"

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Banks slow to modify mortgages, Treasury reports

Despite the continuing foreclosure crisis, banks have made little progress toward modifying the loans of stressed-out homeowners, drawing fire from advocacy groups who say both financial institutions and the federal government should do more.

In its first report on the Obama administration's efforts to prod lenders to help as many as 4 million homeowners by reducing their mortgage payments, the Treasury Department said just 9% of eligible loans had been changed.

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Loans were modified even less often by the two mega-banks that dominate the mortgage market: Wells Fargo & Co. reduced payments for only 6% of its eligible home loans under the government's program, and Bank of America Corp. modified just 4%.

The administration, under tremendous pressure to help homeowners avoid foreclosure, has said that despite the low percentage of loans that had been modified under its plan, the program "has made rapid progress in a few short months" and was on track to help 3 million to 4 million eligible borrowers.

But critics say the effort is way behind.

"Congress and the administration need to end their 'pretty please' approach to the banks and instead finally force lenders to work to keep people in their homes," said Kevin Stein, associate director of the California Reinvestment Coalition.

Some of the major lenders whose efforts were documented in the report released Tuesday had better success, such as GMAC and JPMorgan Chase & Co., which racked up 20% modification rates. Others, including Wells Fargo and BofA, said the report didn't reflect their efforts to modify loans outside Obama's Making Home Affordable program. They also said the workings of the 5-month-old program were not clarified until last month, forcing lenders to wait until just a couple of weeks ago to adopt it.

"We did 240,000 loan modifications in the first seven months of the year, of which just over 20,000 are [Obama plan] mods," said Mike Heid, co-president of Wells Fargo Home Mortgage.

BofA modified 150,000 loans during the first half of the year without going through the Obama program, plus 28,000 using the government's plan, Barbara Desoer, president of Bank of America home loans, said in a statement.

The government has pledged to provide $75 billion in incentive payments to participating borrowers and mortgage companies.

Under the Obama plan, more than 400,000 modification offers have been extended and more than 230,000 trial modifications have begun, the Treasury Department reported.

But the number of homeowners in distress is huge. Nearly 2 million foreclosure filings were made during the first six months of this year, ranging from default notices to completed foreclosure sales, according to foreclosure data firm RealtyTrac. There were 3.2 million such filings in all of 2008 and 2.2 million in 2007.

Dozens of homeowners have contacted The Times in recent months, complaining about lenders' sluggishness or outright refusals to modify loans. Some homeowners were behind in their payments; others were keeping up by going through their savings, but facing a looming bankruptcy.

Domingo Delgadillo of Antioch, Calif., started out well able to afford the pay-option Wachovia bank loan on his 3,000-square-foot home. But when his real estate business collapsed in 2007, he started making only the minimum payments, causing his loan balance to balloon as the value of his house dropped. He's paying 60% of his gross earnings for the house now and has asked for a modification -- to no avail.

"When I called Wachovia in July to request a loan modification, I was told that they still had not implemented their program," he said. "I do not understand how it is possible."

Reached Tuesday afternoon, a spokeswoman for Wells Fargo Home Mortgage, which agreed to buy Wachovia last year as it teetered near collapse, said she couldn't comment on individual customers or access Delgadillo's records so late in the day. She said that in some cases, loans sold to other parties could be modified only if they were in "imminent default." Delgadillo said he had been told his loan was sold to Bank of New York.

The Obama plan is modeled on a program the FDIC developed to modify mortgages at failed IndyMac Federal Bank in Pasadena. Using incentive payments to lenders and borrowers who agree to loan modifications, it reduces mortgage interest rates and extends the duration of the loans to 40 years. The idea is to try to reduce first mortgage payments, taxes and insurance to 31% of a borrower's gross income.

Participants must fully document their earnings and assets, and the first three months of modification is a trial period. If borrowers make three straight payments on time, showing their willingness and ability to pay, the modification becomes permanent.

Critics say the plan needs to be toughened, calling anew for change in federal law to allow bankruptcy judges to order lenders to reduce the principal owed on home mortgages.

These so-called cramdowns had been supported by President Obama and top officials including Lawrence H. Summers, director of the White House's National Economic Council. But the idea has been repeatedly shot down in Congress, in part because the banking industry vehemently opposes it.

Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.), chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, has said he would push for cramdowns if lenders did not show they were modifying more mortgages.

But UC Berkeley economist Kenneth Rosen, who supports voluntary but not court-ordered efforts to lower principal amounts for homeowners, said the federal efforts to prevent foreclosure might show improvement down the line.

"These are early days," Rosen said. "The numbers could be quite different six months from now."


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Lowe's Home Improvement "Should Improve its Overtime Policy"

Denton, TX: When George was hired as a designer/sales "specialist" with Lowe's Home Improvement store, he agreed on making only $12 per hour to start. They neglected to tell George that he would be working 50-hour weeks, like most other "specialists" in the store. "According to Lowe's world, specialists don't qualify for overtime," says George, "but I later found out they are violating federal overtime laws."

So what is "special" about a specialist? According to Lowe's it is an exempt position, thus allowing the retail giant to schedule employees such as George 50-plus hours per week with no overtime pay. But George was paid an hourly rate and his job was identical to other "floor" employees who are not classified as specialists and are paid hourly.

George quit his job in 2004, and since then he has done some research online. "I found out that specialists are hourly workers," says George, "and when I was hired, I was paid an hourly wage. The manager at Lowe's told me they could only afford $12 per hour to start, but I figure they can afford a lot more than that with all the overtime they don't have to pay…

"After working at one location for several months I relocated to Las Vegas and they gave me a $2 per hour raise, but I was still getting an hourly rate. The bottom line is that I was led to believe I was hired as an hourly employee. They never said I would be paid so much per year, a salary.

We did get a lunch break and one 15-minute break during the day but I never discussed overtime with my co-workers, partly because I was isolated from everyone else—I just designed and sold kitchens in the kitchen department and only had passing contact with my co-workers. But the main reason had to do with their intimidation factor. Corporations have a way of intimidating their employees. They have the power, they know it and they use it. And I was worried about getting fired.

I never considered asking for overtime because when I talked to anyone, they said the specialist was separate from the regular workers so I just thought this was their corporate setup. But in my previous job as a union carpenter in Chicago, I always got paid time and a half. At that job I had the union backing me up so I knew that I would always get paid overtime—and you could never be intimidated.

I had no idea how many more hours a week I would work over and above the regular 40 hours until I saw the schedule. Throughout my entire employment I worked six days a week, including some Sundays. After working in Vegas for 6 months I quit so I worked at Lowe's for just over a year in total.

I was frustrated because I couldn't stand up to them—that was the bottom line. About half the store comprises specialists and we were all required to work 50 hours per week. I knew about the overtime law—that you are entitled to time and a half over 40 hours per week— but just took it for granted that because I was classified as a specialist I didn't qualify for overtime. I just thought Lowe's corporate interpretation was correct. But that isn't the case."


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Home improvement materials ignite S.E. home

It was a nice evening for shooting hoops, in the driveway of his family’s home on S.E. Lincoln Street, east of S.E 60th Avenue, on July 15. But Jacob Duilio said his basketball practice was interrupted by wisps of smoke coming from behind a neighbor’s house.

“Right away, there was more thick, black smoke than I’ve ever seen,” Duilio told THE BEE. “It looked like the whole house was catching on fire. While I ran around to the front of the house [on S.E. 60th Avenue], I called 9-1-1. The fire trucks were here in a couple of minutes.”

According to official records, Portland Fire & Rescue (PF&R) crews were dispatched at 6:16 pm and arrived at the home, in the 2300 block of SE 60th Avenue, at 6:18 pm.

PF&R Engine Company 19, the first of three stations to respond, radioed back to the fire dispatcher, “There’s heavy fire coming from the back of the house.”

“Our neighbor across the street came over and woke us up,” recalled Mike Hupp, whose home is directly north of the burned house. “They told us to get out of our house.”

Hupp said he got his garden hose and sprayed water on the roof and side of his home in an effort to keep it, too, from catching on fire. “I did the best I could, but the fire was just too intense. I drove our motor home out of the driveway; I think it’s OK.”

“My neighbor watched as the vinyl siding on his house melted and ran down the wall facing the inferno,” Hupp added. “I think the Styrofoam insulation kept our house from catching on fire. The fire next door was everywhere — the whole back area. Fire was coming out of the roof, back, and sides — the flames were burning higher than the trees.”

Although the front of the home looked relatively unaffected, the back and north side of the house burned fiercely.

The Battalion Chief on-scene, PF&R Deputy Chief Ed Fitzgerald, gathered information from neighbors, as firefighters cut vent and water holes in the roof, and attacked the fire from behind the house for more about 40 minutes, before completely dousing the flames.


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Findlay suburb rejects Home depot warehouse, 300 jobs

FINDLAY — Home Depot Inc. "is evaluating its options" to build a warehouse facility in Hancock County after Allen Township trustees Tuesday night rejected a request for an 85 percent tax abatement on the project.

Rejection of the abatement could kill the $39 million project which the home improvement retailer said would create up to 300 jobs. The firm planned to build a 650,000-square-foot warehouse just west of I-75 and north of State Rt. 613.
Trustees of the Findlay suburb voted 2-1 to reject the tax incentive package, which had previously been approved by the Van Buren Schools board of education and the county commissioners. The Ohio Department of Development also had offered the retailer more than $600,000 in tax incentives and infrastructure improvements to move the project forward.

Home Depot originally considered both Michigan and Indiana for the project, before choosing Ohio, state development officials said. Findlay was one of several Ohio cities under consideration.
The distribution center was expected to serve 120 stores throughout the Midwest, with jobs there paying an average of $10.88 per hour, plus benefits, the company said.

"We’re still interested in bringing this center and the jobs to Findlay," Home Depot spokesman Jen King said yesterday. The company was "diappointed with the [trustees’] decision," she said.

Lowe’s home improvement operates a similar distribution center in suburban Findlay.

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